Brand trust in the time of COVID-19
Experts unanimously agree fall peak is inevitable.
It will be similar to the summer peak, with lower death rate as doctors have learned to treat cases effectively.
Question to be answeredis “how high will thepeak be?”
Experts agree that a vaccine will likely be developed by Q4 2020 or Q1 2021.
Likely used on essential workers and high-risk populations at first.
Wide consensus among experts that full scalevaccine distribution will not occur
until late 2021.
Distribution challenges and low initial propensity to receive the vaccine will delay full scale distribution to fall 2021.
Potential booster or a new, more effective vaccine likely
to roll out post-2021.
Newer vaccines will likely be prioritized to those not immunized, leading to a
steady decline in cases.
Likely to occur after wide vaccine distribution and use.
Consumers will begin to
return to normal routines,
e.g. going to restaurants,
Experts posit a low steady-state will not be possible until we return to a new normal.
Until successful vaccines are deployed and public health measures are taken seriously, spikes in cases should be expected.
The good news is that some of these timelines for a vaccine have improved since October. And generally the overall trends are similar to their earlier predictions:
- A COVID peak in the fall/winter of 2020
- A solid vaccine in 2021
- Wide vaccine distribution in 2022
We have a long road ahead of us.
And current trends in consumer buying are likely to be more of a permanent shift than a short-lived blip. A few key signs of lasting change:
CONSUMERS’ BUYING PATTERNS ARE CHANGING IN A BIG WAY
have tried new shopping behaviors since COVID-19 emerged
plan to continue those new behaviors
E-COMMERCE JUST EXPERIENCED 4 YEARS OF GROWTH IN 4 MONTHS
That’s right—the primary channel for consumers is now online.
say they’ll do more online shopping going forward
CONSUMER LOYALTY IS IN FLUX — AND UP FOR GRABS
They’re switching from private labels to branded goods.
reported trying a new brand in recent weeks